novel coronavirus, COVID-19

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Tamirov.ru
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby Tamirov.ru » Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:10 pm

DeepSOIC wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:54 pm
Does anyone have a clear idea, why are we all in quarantine, and what is the global strategy of fighting this?
Governments have no global aspiration to fight this, because politics know that this is an aidman-virus. But there is a global strategy for politics to show that they control the situation and they do anything possible.
In reality this is gloabal hypocritical psychosis!
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wmayer
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby wmayer » Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:27 pm

DeepSOIC wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:54 pm
For example, let's consider Italy. It has about 60M people, and the peak per-day new cases rate was about 5k, now coming down to circa 2.5k [1], and as far as I heard in the news, their medical system is saturated. If we want the virus to sweep over the population, at 5k/day it will take 12k days, about 32 years. Yikes!
This calculation is wrong because not the whole population needs be infected before the plague disappears. If a certain percentage is immune then the virus has no chance to distribute further and it will disappear automatically.

When reading on Wikipedia about the reproduction number then it talks about two numbers: the basis reproduction number (R0) and the effective reproduction number (Re). The relation between them is:
Re = R0 * (100% - n%) where n is the percentage of the population that is immune.

The goal is that Re < 1, i.e.: R0 * (100% - n%) < 1

If R0=3.1 then n=68%, if R0=2.5 then n=60% or if R0=1.4 then n=29% of the population must be immune.
So following your calculation then in the worst case it will take about ~22 years and in the best case ~10 years. This of course isn't a real option either.
DeepSOIC wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:46 pm
But if the capacity of the medical system is the constraining factor, the linear growth at rate that saturates the system is the fastest way to get everyone through the infection. Which is apparently about 5k per day...
I think the original intention of the "flatten- the-curve" strategy was to avoid to collapse the medical system but let the population go through the infection over a long time span.

However, from what I have read is that the probability to survive an artificial respiration is only 50%. I wonder if this applies to all ages or only the old or people with underlying health conditions.

Now, in the past it was said that only ~20% need medical help and ~25% of them, i.e. ~5% of all cases need artificial respiration.
So, this means still around 1.5 million (60000000 * 5% * 50%) in Italy could die due to/with corona.

That's why at least in Germany some experts say it must be avoided that people get even infected. Therefore the best anti-measurement is spatial distancing and additionally from next week on there is a duty in the whole country to wear a mask if you go shopping. The main strategy of these experts is to delay the pandemia to win enough time to find medicine or a vaccine against COVID-19.
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby onekk » Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:08 pm

The talk are becoming more intense:

Speaking for germany, a friend of mine, (professional medial researcher), said to me that around december2019 january 2020, there was a paper from some german researchers that said in simple words "this year the anti flu vaccine is not much fighting the influence as there are much case of penumonia than the last year", they didn't catch up that a new virus has arrived.

It is not psycosis, it's a real risk, comparing data is not easy, experts are saying that. We common people could only wait and hope that the countermeasure will have some success, and that a vaccine is made in short time.

Even the Americans experts says that in autumn there will be a very probable "second wave".

Comparing three months data with data for a full year, is also statistically incorrect.

Here in Italy (and I'm from Lombardy) the images of Army trucks full of coffins are not seen from the WWII even the worst heartquake hasn't caused so much troubles.

Many of this deads are ancient people, "our historical memory", and the official numbers are not really representing the true data, many of them are not counted officially.

Or maybe it is better to say as some northern government have said in rude terms "if you are over 65 it is better to left "your" intensive care place to someone much younger" ?

It may be a rational thinking, but surely not a behaviour acceptable in 21st century and in a "developed country", maybe even a "less developed" country this will have caused some "thinkinig".

End of OT.

Sincerely

Carlo D.
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Zolko
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby Zolko » Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:26 pm

wmayer wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:27 pm
I think the original intention of the "flatten- the-curve" strategy
If I understand the argument, the objective was that the "curve" mustn't exceed the "line". Therefore, mathematically, you can either "flatten the curve" or "raise the line" .... now, when was there ever discussion about raising the line ? How to achieve this ? Did the government ever contact groups of open-source engineering enthusiasts whether they could help, with the use of modern 3D-printing technology may-be, to design and produce breathing machinery to "raise the line" ? I wonder who we could ask for this information.

to win enough time to find medicine or a vaccine against COVID-19.
onekk wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:08 pm
We common people could only wait and hope that the countermeasure will have some success, and that a vaccine is made in short time.
That's the part I find the most worrying: "they" are already preparing the common mentality that this virus will mutate and come back, and that other draconian measures will have to follow. For our good, of course. To protect us, of course. And if you're wondering why your government plans to buy 45 military aircraft to carry atomic bombs your country doesn't have, instead of investing in medical equipment, you're a tin-foil-hat conspiracy theorist.
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby onekk » Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:51 pm

Here in Italy some of our doctors have modified "Decathlon" Scuba mask to use them as breathing mask, 3D printing some components to test and then send the prototypes to some production plants, even a device with valves that permit to use one brreather for two patients.

Speaking of what our government have done, our Army technicians have helped an Italian firm to produce more breather to supply to our emergency care units.

Some of our "design firms" of "Alta Moda" have converted some lines to produce mask.

Many of our "friends" in Europe have blocked the export of mask and other medical devices to Italy, until some "pressure" had been done.

The same have said "you are too much in alert" and after some weeks they have taken the same measures.

My grandmother said "every head is a little world", and this discussion is perfect to show this concept.

Other says if there 10 peoples there will be 11 opinions,

SIncerely

Carlo D.
chrisb
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby chrisb » Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:17 pm

It is sad if a beloved person dies, not matter at what age. Medicin is not a science as mathematics, where a proof is a proof. We will not know if a person would have survived if this or that had been done. So we are left with statistical data.

Yesterday government published a comparison of the deathrates: there had not been a significant increase compared to the years before.
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby DeepSOIC » Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:29 pm

Zolko wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:26 pm
now, when was there ever discussion about raising the line ? How to achieve this ? Did the government ever contact groups of open-source engineering enthusiasts whether they could help, with the use of modern 3D-printing technology may-be, to design and produce breathing machinery to "raise the line" ? I wonder who we could ask for this information.
There was, there is. As far as I know from the news, Russia is building new hospitals and specializing existing ones to receive the patients. I heard US is doing that as well, and I assume it is happening pretty much everywhere. But even from the best-case estimate from wmayer, the medical system will need somewhere about 20x boost to reduce the quarantine duration to something reasonable like half a year.

As for makers, I don't think they are of much use here. Instead, opening up a design of an existing relatively cheap yet effective ventilator and quickly building production lines for it is the way to go. Makers are great, but there are not very many, and most are not experienced enough.
There are some efforts. For example:
SmarterEveryDay video on how makers in US are printing face shields: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbEj7M3aZIg
RealEngineering on how not to design a ventilator: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vLPefHYWpY
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby neophyte1 » Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:46 pm

Hello and best wishes to all those who are coping with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic - especially for those who are indigenous residents of developing countries. I noticed that a few posters on this thread asked why a discussion of the impacts of COVID-19 has made its way onto a forum that is dedicated to improving and showcasing an open-source CAD software package. I'd like to gently state that I share the concerns of these posters. I am a bit nervous about seeing a discussion of COVID-19 or other current events on this forum because of the serious potential that such a discussion could be politicized and that this forum could be hijacked by people who don't care about CAD software, but who do have political axes to grind. Just a thought...
chrisb
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby chrisb » Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:59 pm

Currently this discussion is mainly driven by forum members who have proven multiply that they are more addicted to FreeCAD and 3D modeling than to discussing political things only. I appreciate it, if the discussion has a quantitative basis. When it comes to formulae it is like being parametric.
triplus
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby triplus » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:16 am

I fell that at the beginning there was a real risk for the following scenario to happen. People don't care, older people and people with bad immune system get infected, people go to hospital and there are not enough respiratory devices to threat all of them. This was a real risk and it happened in countries such as Italy and i guess in Wuhan and it happened to some extent in other countries. If i remember correctly some speculation were made, that in Italy larger gatherings of people in some sport events might have spread the virus.

Bottom line the risk is/was real. Now if all the measurement, self isolation in such way, are appropriate response, generally speaking. I don't know. What hopefully will happen is warmer weather and increased humidity will work against the virus. But overall i feel that some now want to prolong the measurements until vaccine will be made. This i guess is a bit problematic, as this for sure such strategy would have great economical impact and as far is i know corona virus mutates. Hence relying on the vaccine is not 100% guarantee.

All in all i fell that countries will start to loosen the measurements around May. As far as larger group gatherings are concerned. That likely won't be allowed in foreseeable future. As what will happen in the next "flu season". That is another question we can only speculate about.