novel coronavirus, COVID-19

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wmayer
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby wmayer » Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:13 pm

chrisb wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:17 pm
Medicin is not a science as mathematics, where a proof is a proof. We will not know if a person would have survived if this or that had been done. So we are left with statistical data.
The world is too complex in order to be fully described mathematically. But at least with the help of math (and statistics is math) some aspects of the reality can be described in a simplified model so that you can derive certain insights and based on them you can make decisions.

If you think back at the Middle Ages in the 14. century when the sovereigns and their counsels had no clue about science or math and thus not much knowledge how to protect the population it's no wonder that a third of the German population has died due to the plague.
chrisb wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:17 pm
Yesterday government published a comparison of the deathrates: there had not been a significant increase compared to the years before.
Do you have a link? Hendrik Streeck who recently made the Heinsberg studies said that at the end of the year there will be no significant increase and was heavily criticized by other experts.
rynn
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby rynn » Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:40 pm

No data for germany but for England and Wales the effect is quite visible in the data from the Office for National Statistics:

Image
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1252518098047041536

! Der img-tag funktioniert irgendwie nicht…
wmayer
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby wmayer » Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:57 pm

Zolko wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:26 pm
Therefore, mathematically, you can either "flatten the curve" or "raise the line" .... now, when was there ever discussion about raising the line ? How to achieve this ?
In the last weeks the hospitals have increased their capacities by a factor 2. But the problems to consider are:
  • There is a certain upper limit
  • The capacity can be more or less only increased linearly while without any anti-measurements the virus would have been spread exponentially (at least at the beginning)
  • When again talking about artificial respiration it's not only done by increasing the number of devices but you need qualified people because this apparently is a quite complicated matter
So, IMO the best strategy is flattening the curve because the spread could be reduced to linear growth.
Zolko wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:26 pm
And if you're wondering why your government plans to buy 45 military aircraft to carry atomic bombs your country doesn't have, instead of investing in medical equipment, you're a tin-foil-hat conspiracy theorist.
Well, our current minister of defense (who is also chairwoman of the government party) has proven several times that she has no sensitiveness when or how to announce plans. But I hope that these are only plans and won't be realized.
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sliptonic
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby sliptonic » Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:32 pm

DeepSOIC wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:29 pm

As for makers, I don't think they are of much use here. Instead, opening up a design of an existing relatively cheap yet effective ventilator and quickly building production lines for it is the way to go. Makers are great, but there are not very many, and most are not experienced enough.
There are some efforts. For example:
SmarterEveryDay video on how makers in US are printing face shields: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbEj7M3aZIg
RealEngineering on how not to design a ventilator: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vLPefHYWpY
I think there are places for makers to contribute.

I loved that SmarterEveryDay video. It was insightful that much of the success of the face-shield printing effort was because they could point to a specific .stl file and tell the maker army to print THAT. The group that I'm working with is addressing problems earlier in the cycle. Trying to come up with the equivalent of that .stl file.

Here's a video I made about the problem we're working on. It would be great to have one or more designs matured to the point of a BOM, solid model, and technical drawings that anyone could use to replicate a turning device.

https://forum.freecadweb.org/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=45600
chrisb
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby chrisb » Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:05 pm

wmayer wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:13 pm
Do you have a link?
No, it was in the good old newspaper.
A Sketcher Lecture with in-depth information is available in English, auf deutsch, en français, en español.
wmayer
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby wmayer » Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:54 pm

chrisb wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:05 pm
wmayer wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:13 pm
Do you have a link?
No, it was in the good old newspaper.
Is it this one: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesel ... ahlen.html
chrisb
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby chrisb » Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:06 pm

I guess that the article was based on this data. It shows how important it is to have the full information and not to read some journalists interpretations, where important informations may have been dropped, probably not ill willed, but nevertheless not recognizing the importance. Here it is the evaluation date which seems to be too early to show significance.
A Sketcher Lecture with in-depth information is available in English, auf deutsch, en français, en español.
emills2
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby emills2 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:18 pm

this is about the most sensible conversation on the topic i have seen on a web forum, which is nice. personally i still see a concern about discussing the issue at length here.

when we talk to our coworkers, we likely see them in person and they merge into our social identity to a much higher degree. right now i am appalled by things i hear from some coworkers, but in time i will likely forgive them, because i deal with them not only on issues but as full human beings. there is much less social integration online, and the lack of physical presence reduces our ability to empathize. forgiveness may be harder to reach.

if many people in the freecad reveal their personal beliefs in a time of such crisis, it could create enduring animosity.

please be careful
A_3
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby A_3 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:39 pm

The virus is dangerous for people all ages, no one is immune, anyone can die. Severe cases filled our hospitals in two weeks. So far everything is under control. Quarantine is needed to reduce the spread of the virus. Now that is globally. No one was prepared for this situation, everything was on edge, especially the health system. It was every man for himself, by "man" I mean country. I hope that for future pandemics WHO and UN will make global procedures. We were left alone to fight, until we got help from China. But it's OK, now we have restored the production of many medical products, even the military industry has begun to work on it. For the second wave, all of us shall learn a lesson.

So folk, protect yourself and others.

Notice:
I don't want to scare anyone, that's just the way things are.
This is not politics, this is life.
Prohibition of traffic of people and goods, as well as the closure of cities existed in the Middle Ages in epidemics of plague and cholera.
Before 5G antennas, we got a radar antenna network and what pandemic? :roll:
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CVS67
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Re: novel coronavirus, COVID-19

Postby CVS67 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:18 pm

Bonjour,

C'est pas un forum Français ici ?
E scheener gruss vun Auenem